Thursday, December 27, 2007

Misleading Headlines

The headline: Climate Change's $75 Billion Bill

The relevant part of the story: "Total economic losses from natural catastrophes in 2007 rose to $75 billion from $50 billion the year before as extreme weather conditions driven by climate change wreaked havoc across the world..."

The problem: The headline leads you to believe that $75 billion was lost because of climate change. The problem is that, as likely as not, some - maybe little, maybe much - of this would have happened anyway. To accurately measure the "bill" for climate change would require an estimate of the "unchanged" losses, so that the additional impact of climate change could be assessed. My guess? Most, if not all, of this weather and these disasters would have happened anyway. If that's true, then the headline goes from misleading to utterly false.

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