Monday, November 19, 2007

Energy Policy Fallacies

Reducing gas/oil consumption domestically won't "reduce our dependance on foriegn oil." Because Middle East oil is easier to extract for geological reasons, and because if the oil price falls because of decreased demand it will be the expensive (North American) sources of oil that go offline before teh cheap (OPEC) sources.

There's talk of trying to get oil out of the Tar Sands in Alberta, Canada. But such a process is only economical when the price of oil is high, because it is a difficult and expensive proposition. If the price of oil falls, it is these sources of oil that will shut down, not the inexpensive oil fields of the Middle East.

So, curiously, dropping the price of oil increases our dependence on foriegn oil (if dependence = % of oil imported from country/region X). Even if we mandate that we can only use American sources of oil, we don't reduce the $ flowing to the "bad" countries, because it just means that people that would have bought from us will buy from them instead.

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