It's not looking good for any Democratic contender for the party's nomination to run for president, unless their name is Barack Obama. InTrade is an electronic forecasting tool that uses markets to make predictions (since the people "responding" have an incentive to choose wisely, not just with their gut, they tend to do a decent job of it). Obama is a significant front-runner in almost every listed state, and barring a significant faux pas, I'm guessing he'll be the nominee.
The same numbers are more mixed for Republicans, but McCain and Romney seem to be #1 and #2 right now.
3 comments:
That's interesting ...
... I'm currently torn btw Obama and McCain, assuming I'm forced to make that choice.
The odds have shifted a lot since Hillary's surprise win, which goes to show that turnout is what matters. Obama, I think, really could have used a strong early showing, to motivate a "chasing the leader response" in other states where conventional wisdom says Clinton will benefit.
Generally, the base likes Clinton, but the independents strongly favor Obama - meaning that while Obama's a stronger general election candidate, Clinton has an edge getting the nomination to begin with.
Personally, I hope that Obama wins the Democratic nomination - not that I'd promise to vote for him, but I think he'd be a better leader for the country, and since the Democrats currently have a strong edge in the national election, I'm hoping they pick a good candidate.
I'd be interested in your take on how Obama vs. Clinton will play in Nevada.
The union endorsement obviously helps Obama, but overall, NV doesn’t strike me as the most natural environment for liberal idealism. On the other hand, I also think it’s a place that might have Clinton fatigue. I have no read on which way it’ll go, except that as you note, the base likes Clinton, and NV doesn’t let Independents into the party caucuses (right?).
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