Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Global Warming

A couple of things I think reasonable people can agree on with regards to Global Warming:

1) It's happening. The average temperature of the atmosphere is going up.
2) We have no real idea what that means. The mantra for years has been "Global Warming = More Devestating Atlantic Hurricanes." It spoke to a tangible fear in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was a mantra based on science - warmer water = more energy for the storms to grow on. And... oh. Maybe not. Oopsie! (The Point: The global climate system is, as you would expect, REALLY, REALLY complex. I suspect the best that the best climatologists could offer are possible outcomes, not certain ones).

Humans have a natural tendency to over-estimate the likelihood of vivid events, like plane crashes, terrorist attacks, and major hurricanes hitting the US. Beware of anyone - be it the TSA or Al Gore - who tries to feed that fear to get you to comply with them.

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