As it stands, I'm planning to vote for Romney at the caucus tomorrow.
It's down to Romney and McCain in my book. And the biggest factor is one that my friend Kenny (who doesn't like Romney) suggested is a good criteria for picking a candidate - namely, that they have a good combination of skills and aptitude to "come to the right answer."
I respect John McCain's record, particularly as a veteran and as a strong supporter of immigration reform that was outside the pandering mold of most Republicans. There is no question that he has a great familiarity with the Federal government, and he has a demonstrated ability to work with people in both parties.
But my biggest gripe with the current administration is that it too often gives the predictable political answer to a question (economy good? "It's because of our tax cuts!" economy bad? "We obviously need more tax cuts!"), and an inability to move past his own world and examine a broader picture. And while John McCain is not George Bush, I don't see anything to suggest that he's able to step out of his own box to examine the broader picture.
Romney has run a well-organized and well-financed campaign, but that is not particularly impressive to me. If anything, I've seen little, if anything, in his campaign to convince me that I should vote for him. Truth be told, I've seen little, if any, of his campaign. I watched his victory speech in Michigan, and saw the predictable "we need change" mantra of each candidate, but without the amiable air of Senator Obama. I think he comes across as colder most of the time, and I think this would hurt him in a head-to-head with Obama. Finally, I'm not particularly fond of his "we'll fight for every job," because it's usually a "we'll spend a lot of tax money on a given problem."
All of that being said, I'm voting for him because:
- He has laid out sensible "here's what I'd like to do" plans.
- He ran a balanced budget in a notoriously liberal state... and I think budget defecits are a much larger problem than anyone seems to realize today.
- He's well-qualified, with both his education and his executive experience suggesting he'd be an excellent CEO for the United States.
- Even though I think he'd fare worse than McCain in a head-to-head with Clinton or Obama, I consider my task to be to select the best person for the job, not the best person to get the job to begin with.
Last chance to try and talk me out of it.
4 comments:
Gov. Romney should consider himself fortunate :)
I'd be interested to hear more about why deficits are such a big problem.
The long, detailed, proper response to your question is something I'll need some time to put together. It's not something I speak about from my own expertise on teh subject - rather, it's the opinion of people (1) who know more about monetary economics than I, and (2) who seem willing to evenly weigh various economic news where I do have a better idea what they're talking about.
The synopsis of the answer is that defecits (1) are self-perpetuating as the interest burden on the existing debt grows; (2) self-perpetuate because the two ways of eliminating defecits within a government's control (tax increases and/or spending cuts - though a growing economy can also do it - see the 2000 stock bubble) are unpopular, painful, and too long-term for a 2, 4, or 6-year politician to feel pressured to address; (3) require an increasing level of interest so that the debt papers will be purchased by an investor; (4) promote inflation; (5) discourage savings; (6) tend to increase imports while discouraging exports; (7) seem benign when an economy is expanding rapidly, but can financially crush a nation if that growth stops.
Having a public debt that has tripled in the past decade and that is roughly 75% of the nation's GDP (Debt: $9.1 trillion. GDP: $13.3 trillion) is like having an annual income of $40,000 a year and a personal non-collateral-based loan of $30,000 than you are adding to every year. It's a disaster waiting to happen.
Building such a huge pile of debt when the increasing obligations of Social Security and (far worse) Medicare are beginning to be realized limits the ability of the government to do anything about it. The dilema that is currently before the country - recession or fighting inflation - is one that will be replayed with higher stakes and fewer options if the debt spirals out of control.
The interest paid on the national debt has increased by $100 billion from 2004 to 2006, because the size of the national debt drives up the interest rates the country has to offer so that investors will continue to finance our debt.
The fiscal disaster of 2001-2006 is my single biggest frustration with the Republicans.
I'm not worried about terrorists destroying our country or way of life. But I do worry that our attitude toward our national debt will devestate the country in a way that makes the recessions of the early 1980's (when "tough medicine" was required to tame inflation) look like joyous times by comparison. Nevada's 5.8% unemployment rate in December is tame compares to the 11%+ unemployment rates we experienced then.
Thanks, that's helpful.
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