What's today's front page story in the local paper? "Some politicos think fuel prices are going down to help get certain candidates elected."I can hardly believe this is even a story. But it is the result of a single line of thought I had when I first made my prediction: "Now that gas prices are coming down, how can people possibly think oil companies are setting the price and gouging customers? Are they suddenly less greedy? Well, I suppose one could argue that they started bringing gas prices down to help Republicans in the midterm elections."
5 comments:
You beat me to the punch. I was going to comment on your previous post now that it is in bold capital print on the front page of the Reno Gazette Journal.
In the article they make some hay about the fact that 89% of oil company donations go to Republicans (possible implication - to buy votes?).
I wonder how much money is donated my media companies to Democrats? Or by pro-abortion groups? Or by NAMBLA, et al?
Maybe companies tend to support candidates with favorable views. Is anyone surprised that a party that wants to ban oil exploration and repeatedly says "we can't drill our way out of the energy problem" doesn't win much love from Exxon-Mobil?
Given the following: 1) previously sky-high oil prices suddenly falling, 2) Republicans sucking wind in mid-term polling, and 3) the fact that oil companies are big supporters of Republicans, it seems like a fair query whether there's a connection between 1 & 2.
Fair Query? Sure. But answers are not hard to find, and if the question is asked by responsible people, the answers should be provided. The short answer is that, barring natural disasters or unusual situations, gas prices always fall at this time of the year - after the summer driving season ends and demand comes down. And sure enough, at just about the time one would expect them to do so, gas prices began to come down.
The long answer would be to regress gas prices over time and see if there is an effect in non-election years, or non-election years where Republicans suck in the polls.
What irks me is that, instead of giving a solid analysis of why gas prices are really coming down (cf the price of oil and US stockpiles that are ~10% above the upper end of the normal range), the newspaper leaves the "conspiracy" on the table, as though it were an equally legitimate argument - with only the oil company exec's word that it is not.
This is a normal, and perfectly predictable seasonal trend. It was expected by anyone who pays attention to such things, and materialized as one would expect.
It is not far removed in my mind from the Pharoah claiming to make the sun rise every morning, and the sun coming up, leaving Pharoah as the only possible explanation.
I remember that blog. I've thought about it numerous times over the past couple of months as gas prices did indeed continue to drop. Good call, Dave!
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